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    Great note, I agree with your conclusion. The company has a very niche target market that doesn’t mind paying casual dining prices for the pleasure of making restaurant quality food at home. The issue is that it hasn’t been able to earn any money servicing that market and it is difficult to expand the market as the basic product isn’t cost effective. Additionally, there are no real barriers to entry and all you need for heightened competitive pressure are a few active VCs ready to back money losing startups.

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      When I signed up for Blue Apron a while back they didn’t have local facilities so they shipped my food from halfway across the country. No wonder their margins are terrible, they use tech startup logic for traditional business line.

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        Stock tanked 7% today, looks like MW does have some sway!

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          At the end of the day there’s no innovation that APRN can compete on, only cost cutting. Shipping and labor maybe they can squeeze a few percent out. You say they want to cut marketing to the bone? Risky play, don’t see that their brand is strong enough to spread by word of mouth.

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            WeWork blowing up and potentially defaulting on a huge amount of office space can’t help the situation either.

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              Yeah a big problem with all these mREITs is that they underwrite loans “collateralized” by commercial properties, but these properties are not developed yet. The value of the collateral is assumed to be the projected value of the finished development. So if someone along the line goes belly up, this causes a huge domino effect and blows up the debt instruments.

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                The company says it “normally” settles payables on 30-day terms. As of now, 95% of the company’s payables are past 30 days due and 64% are over 180 days old. We question whether they will ever be paid.

                That’s a not so creative way to cook the books, lol.

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                  Ah yes, GSX again. This idea was first publicized by Citron a month ago, but the stock price went on a tear since. Just quickly scanning to see if any new revelations came out. The smoking gun appears to be a former GSX manager who’s testifying that he ran a botnet to fake users on the platform.

                  GSX itself has a room, in this computer room there are over 10,000 machines, we call them the group robots, which is used to control [the operation]. One person can control about 1,000 cell phones without a problem, and these can be operated remotely or from the room, I can control all of the machines. Then I can imitate the data generated by a real student or real buying, this is already a very mature technology

                  GSX sites are also leaking a bunch of user data, which they downloaded and analyzed for bot-like behavior. Seems quite convincing all in all.

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                      Bitcoin mining is the definition of a zero-moat business. It’s a race to the bottom based on who can get the lowest electricity fees and newest ASIC chips. That being said, I believe this analysis is a bit shallow. It’s not just as simple as “No way anybody can compete with Nvidia”. ASICs are by definition specialized chips not usable for general purpose computing, and therefore there’s a lot of value in targeting niche markets like crypto mining that big players like NVDA will not do.

                      CAN doesn’t seem like the best positioned to dominate the crypto mining market, and overall is in an undesirable position. Net income is atrocious at -$1B TTM. Still though, market cap isn’t insane, could very well be targeted for takeover…

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                        Psychologically, with a $112mm termination fee, I don’t believe the board of Advent will let this deal fall through. It’s a 54B fund, this deal isn’t big enough for them to be waffling like this.

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                          I just reviewed the company’s linkedin page. How is this company operating a music service allegedly in 23 countries with just 22 employees. One may need that many people just in administrative roles for a public company. I also checked the app store and the company has just 20 ratings with the last one written on 06/04/2019. Clearly there is a problem.

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                            A number of deals have been put into question following COVID-19 outbreak. Carlyle just pulled out of its deal to invest in American Express’ global travel arm. Earlier Wework Softbank deal also fell through. Sycamore partners pulled out of limited brands deal as well.

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                              EY refusing to sign off on Q4 2019 results; Q1 2020 results tomorrow. Wow. Just wow. This should be interesting to listen in on.

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                                Stock is extrapolating some of the recent, temporary surge the company saw in Q2 QTD revenue trends (up 90%). Once brick and mortar stores open up, sales trends will normalize and the business will still be a cash burner for the next few quarters. Also, a significant portion of the company’s products come from China and the company faces major risks if China/US trade battle gets worse.

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                                  I reviewed Dropbox’s quarterly numbers. Overall, it was a mixed quarter. The company largely maintained its guidance. Its paying user growth slowed from 12.6% YoY to 10.6% YoY. The company apparently has seen some uptick in customer trials but was unclear what this means for future quarters and also gave a confused response to the impact that unemployment and business closures will have on the business. Overall, an inconsequential qtr.

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                                    Updated report here: https://www.mca-mathematik.com/ey-wirecard-finance/

                                    The KPMG report and other information suggest that EY may have been repeatedly deceived by Wirecard when preparing past audit opinions. Internal chats among Wirecard finance employees seem to imply that EY Munich influenced another EY office as a favour for senior management in Munich. This situation is detrimental for all stakeholders in Wirecard.

                                    Given KPMG’s findings, and with this knowledge, can EY still stand by its previous audit opinions and Wirecard’s accounting treatment? We believe it is essential EY reviews its prior audits and takes account of the KPMG report and the other information now available to ensure a sufficiently rigorous process when handling the current audit.

                                    Throughout the KPMG report, it’s clear that KPMG’s forensic opinion often differs from that of EY, Wirecard’s group auditor. Most notably, as we highlighted in our last article, EY’s acceptance of Edo Kurniawan’s accounting opinion for treating escrow accounts as cash, written and sent just days before the 2016 audit was signed, raises concerns about the amount of time EY had to perform robust and independent analysis of this and other key accounting issues.

                                    As a second example, how were EY happy to allow Wirecard to report TPA revenue on a gross basis when Wirecard had no access to merchant records or KYC? It is risible that hundreds of millions of euros of revenue were booked and “audited” based solely on the presentation of quarterly excel spreadsheets from TPA partners.

                                    To be fair, EY’s lack of insight into the situation does not look like their fault. Communications within the Wirecard finance team in 2016 and 2017 make for astonishing reading. It’s clear that there’s little respect for EY. Executives in the finance team gloat while making derogatory comments related to how they can get EY to do whatever they want. Was EY aware of how they were viewed, or more likely, were they simply lied to?

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                                      I have noticed that some are including Dropbox in the ‘work from home’ stocks category and that may have helped the stock a bit recently. The work from home benefit is likely to be very minimal in the case of Dropbox as indicated by google trends. I compared recent google trends data of Dropbox vs Ringcentral, Microsoft teams and Docusign. Dropbox has barely seen any lift in searches as compared to clear uptick in the case of the other three. It will be interesting to see what the company has to say after market close when they report Q1.

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                                          So when the findings of KPMG’s six-month special audit were published last week, the 74-page report provided for the first time a description of the inner workings of a company that has long been inscrutable. Whether aspects of the structure described were real or fraudulent remains unproven — KPMG did not come to a conclusion, citing “obstacles” compounded by a lack of data — and that lack of clarity has knocked a third, close to €5bn, off the market valuation of a group that had been worth more than Deutsche Bank.

                                          FT: How the paper trail went cold in KPMG’s special audit of Wirecard